FSJ blogs about this money article about the day that Jobs will push more Apple computers than Gates able to push Windows PCs. While that may sound plausible with Apple’s recent momentum, let me state why I DO NOT think it will happen.
Over the past few years, Jobs has really managed to gather steam pushing his products. Does he have what it takes to overtake Windows eventually? Maybe. But very unlikely. Personally, I think it will take only another 10 years before the web layer becomes more important than the hardware/OS layer. I am not sure about the rest of you, but I can tell you that my computer usage pattern shows a definite trend of spending more time in the browser vs. other OS apps. Sure, there is still a lot of money being made selling competing OS platforms, but for Apple to outsell Windows+PCs, it is almost impossible– unless Jobs is able to successfully segment his products to capture the low end as well. He was able to do so with the iPod, and he succeeded in capturing the majority market share in the mp3 player arena. Selling computers is different though. Until one day Apple can release a competitively priced internet appliance that the majority of users use their PC’s for, Apple outselling PCs is really just California Dreamin’.
Let me spin the question this way. Assuming that these two cars stay within their product segments, will a Lexus LS460 ever outsell a Toyota Camry?